Saturday, January 14, 2006

‘Show me the (unassailable) proof’

Somewhat self-assuredly, Geo taunts Ricky:
. . . The Garci tapes may be for real - I’ve never denied that. And if GMA is proven to have orchestrated massive electoral fraud, she must go. However, I have not seen proof. And that’s what I want . . ..

I don’t find my position to be ludicrous at all, but nonetheless there are many who are convinced that they know the real score and disagree with my thinking (which is: “please show me the proof”).

I don’t understand why you would disagree with me about demanding proof. Especially when we both CAN agree that you are an intelligent guy.
I think Mario Taguiwalo’s Newsstand post in August 2004 in reply to a comment by Bobi Tiglao in the same blog is pertinent here. Mario wrote:
Ok, Bobi, let us sit back and see where we are now with regards to the culpability of GMA in electoral cheating.

It has been nearly two months since the tapes surfaced. Are the tapes downloadable from PCIJ website authentic or not? Let us assume that these tapes contained conversations that were made up, manufactured, spliced, merely performed or otherwise tampered. Clearly a thorough investigation of these tapes would have then benefited GMA would it not? Yet, do we see anyone in government doing anything to establish the provenance, character, authenticity of these tapes? No one! We then ask, why not, if indeed these tapes are in anyway compromised? I would be happy to hear Bobi’s explanation for this serious lapse in competence that has been going on for two months now, and which, if corrected, could have helped us avoid all this excitement. Yehey! FBI, Scotland Yard and Interpol have all concluded that the tapes were a hoax!

My next question is this: Why has there not been a direct and simple denial that that is not GMA’s voice on that tape? Maybe because such a denial would be blatant lie? Does the Palace think the avoidance of truth is somehow more respectable than direct lying? Again, Bobi, please explain to us this strange pattern of behavior for defending a president supposedly innocent of the crime of election cheating and merely undergoing unfair trial by publicity.

So finally we come to the GMA-Garcillano conversations. Suppose, for argument sake, we have agreed that the tapes are a real record of actual conversations that actually took place. Suppose further that GMA actually had those conversations caught on tape. Bobi, can you explain to us lesser mortals why we would not conclude that those conversations were about cheating planned, intended and executed. Why is GMA talking to Garcillano about provinces for which he was not even the commissioner in charge? Why is GMA reporting events to Garcillano so that he can take damage control measures?

Prior to June 6 when the tapes emerged, I did not question that GMA was duly elected. But the tapes are simply too gross to be ignored. The Presidency is not a right, it is only a privilege granted to the duly elected. Once that privilege is challenged by facts like those contained in the tapes, there is no hiding behind constitutional niceties or due process or presumption of innocence. The burden of proving she should retain the privilege of deciding for us must be on GMA’s shoulder.

This is what I mean when I say it is about legitimacy, stupid! Show me that the tapes are not authentic! Prove to me that it is not GMA talking to Garcillano! Convince me that those conversations between GMA and Garcillano are innocent and not about election cheating! Then you got your citizens back respectful of the mandate of your president.

But don’t tell me - go ahead sue me! Don’t tell me respect due process and grant GMA the benefits of her rights because she has not earned the right to be president, she has merely been granted that privilege by virtue of her election. Now that the very credibility of that election is under question, she has an obligation to re-assure us not provoke us, to establish her innocence not for us to pin down her guilt.

The president rules by contract granted by the people. Now we have reason to question that that contract was fraudulently concluded. She must show us convincingly that the facts contained in these tapes did not impair that contract.

That GMA has survived thus far is not a testament to a strong republic, it is merely proof that one can fool some people some of the time.
In support of Mario’s stance I also posted:
. . . perhaps differently put, GMA’s conduct after the outing of the tapes and up to the present has not comported at all with the conduct of an innocent person even in a rather legalistic frame that GMA apparently prefers to operate. Within that context, the doubting public reasonably should look forward to her going further than merely confessing “lapse in judgment” because even non-lawyers who are still giving her the benefit of the doubt expect her to state something like – “Ok, I have had this ‘lapse’ but I actually did it to avoid a greater evil or injury.” But we are not hearing any of those exculpatory circumstances at all except for the suggestion that some privacy rights could have been violated. Hence, the strong public perception of guilt that strangely she is not trying to overturn even after losing critical allies and constituencies.

Now, may be a distinction should also be made between “legitimacy” and “legitimation.” The latter term may be explained in the Clinton perspective. Recall that Clinton has been impeached for “lying under oath” about a misconduct that has nothing to do with the performance of his office as President. So Clinton upon acquittal was easily “re-legitimated” his legitimacy never having been in question at all. GMA doesn’t seem to have this luxury because she will have the baggage of both “legitimacy” and “legitimation” if a failed “un-election” process through impeachment would be perceived as equally tainted as her “election.”
We have waited for days for Bobi to respond prompting Jojo Abinales to wonder: “And has Bobi responded to Mario yet? I kind of miss his voice here . . ..”

So Mario pressed on:
. . . And what we see from Malacanang since these tapes emerged do not offer much hope. First, Bunye’s real and altered tapes went bust. Second, Iggy’s guy claining he is Gary not Garci fizzled out. Third, Gonzales illegal wiretap threat failed to stave off its spread. Fourth, silence from GMA only increased demand for response. Fifth, the debacle of the apology without admission. Sixth, just sue me in Congress. All these actions do not point to a defense by a misunderstood president who may be innocent of cheating, rather these are all consistent with mere damage control of a president indefensibly exposed as a cheater.

Bobi thought he was clever in referring to these tapes as “mere snippets of conversations” signifying nothing. But the actions of Malacanang relative to these tapes demonstrate a recognition that these tapes contain the cancer that is eating away at the legitimacy of GMA. And that cancer has already metastasized and continues spreading to this day.
The silence of Bobi propelled me to jump in once more:
First to Jojo’s question: “And has Bobi responded to Mario yet?”

In a microcosmic but parallel sense, that’s the same question the nation is asking GMA. Mario’s position is too inescapably compelling that if we don’t hear any further from Bobi, it would leave the impression from whoever is following this exchange that Bobi has really nothing to controvert it. In other words, all Mario has to do, without substantiating his points any further, is to sit back. Hence, the burden of going forward [as distinguished from burden of proof] is on Bobi. Otherwise, Bobi’s justification for the Strong Republic will sound like the bites in GMA’s SONA, even if we assume the merits of some of them in both.

I agree with Mario that the ringing tones of the Hello Garci tapes are more damaging than the whistle blowing of Chavit, in fact also too deafening to render Sammy Ong quite dispensable. My point of departure is where the metastasizing of the tapes into the “cancer” that it is now is somehow suggested to be a phenomenon independent of the transforming dimension of “people power,” I mean the “thinking” (or the “liberating” in the Gramscian tradition, thanks, Jojo) and not the “hooting” aspect of it. I think the saga of the Garci tapes and the buffooneries, the anger, all the rhetoric surrounding them, have converged in the social checks and balances that we now call “people power.” This power is equivocating today because it is thinking. Evidence of this thinking nature (and process) is the proliferation of blogging. As Mario has noted, this is what was absent in the “coalition” (although the CPP has always been ready with its prayer book) that produced EDSA I and the rather extemporaneous “uprising” (downgraded to “speechifying” by the SC to “force a constitutional succession”) of EDSA II.

What I’m hearing from Mario is that GMA is basically a lame duck now because of her “illegitimation” by the Hello Garci controversy so that even if real reforms were pursued, including certain specific salutary goals and initiatives (e.g., federalism) of Bobi’s Strong Republic, she would not only be politically hamstrung but economically as well because having lost her political bargaining position, the “marginal cost” could be prohibitive, meaning consensus (or “aregluhan,” in the Filipino fashion as suggested by Jojo) will require more uneven trade-offs. But “elite consensus” (of the peninsulares and the insulares of the Erap diatribes) is perceived as part of the problem, is it not? So, I agree with Mario that collaboration the Dodong [Nemenzo]’s way as the starting strategic vision - which implies “experimentation” - offers a better systemic as well as creative alternative to Abueva’s customized plans.

Given the sovereign-tampering (or, in fact, polity-shattering) implications of the Garci tapes . . ., Mario’s argument against John [Nery]’s disdain of the “unelected” won’t look like an overstretch anymore. It may even go past the “idealism” hurdle . . .
Apparently avoiding to confront the foregoing, Bobi had decided to post his Witches’ Brew piece as his next reply as to which I posted my own rejoinder wherein I have summarized the rather “technical” [hence, subversive of the substantive] grounds upon which GMA’s refusal to go forward is anchored:

1. The other complaints violate the one-year bar rule on initiating impeachment proceedings;

2. The impeachable offenses (prominently, the ones based on the “Garci Tapes”) were committed during GMA’s first term (referring to the unexpired term of Joseph “Erap” Estrada, who was deemed “constructively resigned” by the Supreme Court);

3. The supposed impeachable offense, the “election fraud” in particular, is a matter that only the Supreme Court, sitting as Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET) can try and decide on;

4. The “Garci Tapes,” even if true, are inadmissible in evidence because the phone conversations between the President and a COMELEC commissioner about altering election results are private conversations;

5. If at all, only the original complaint should be entertained because the other complaints were filed without the permission of the “court”.

Is Arroyo really interested in the Rule of Law?” was the title of my rejoinder; and pertaining specifically to ground 4, I have argued:
It is claimed in the FOURTH argument that the “Garci Tapes” even if true, are inadmissible in evidence because the phone conversations between the President and a COMELEC commissioner about altering election results are private conversations.

The president talking to a COMELEC commissioner about elections a private conversation? Private as a frog, maybe. Besides, if GMA is really interested in the truth [or proof about the truth], it is her high duty to waive her supposed right to privacy at this crucial juncture. GMA owes it to herself to prove her innocence once and for all and then, if successful, resume forthwith her governance responsibility. To say the very least, it is not very pretty for her to hide behind some technicalities while the nation is in crisis.
Okay, Geo, we have not seen proof. But WHY not?

19 Comments:

Anonymous Geo said...

Abe,

Yeah I had problems with Ricky's site as well. To tell you the truth, I was wondering if I had been banned! (As I realize my views run counter to those of the other posters).


To respond to your comments in your linked site (I have to do a short version now; maybe I can expand on it later):

1. I'm sorry if I came across in the wrong way, I didn't meant to sound "self-assured" (I'm actually questioning the self-assured posture of those who are sure that the tapes are bona fide) and I definitely wasn't "taunting" Ricky. I'm actually BEGGING Ricky to take another look at the Garci tapes issue...because I believe that Ricky is an intelligent guy and is (hopefully) open-minded enough to seriously perform the excercise. I'm not insisting that he believes in the results of the exercise; I'm only asking that he publicly constructs a plausible, alternative interpretation...and mulls it over with us.

2. Why didn't the admin aggressively attempt to establish the veracity (or lack thereof) of the tapes? The easiest answer is: veracity of WHAT tapes? You need the originals to do that. In addition, it may well be that they can't find/get to Ong. So what trail can they follow?

However, I have one theory (out of several I've been contemplating) that fits together a lot of events, and it presupposes that it WAS indeed GMA who ordered some kind of wiretapping (of a defensive, rather than offensive nature). Digging around too deeply thus might backfire...as a revelation about the government tapping people would put GMA in the same roiling waters that the Bush/NSA wiretapping issue has created. The timing for such a revelation during the last few months was politically impossible.

3. Why didn't GMA directly deny that it was her voice? Probably because it WAS her voice...but the conversations were not accurate. Anyway, Bunye and Defensor (amongst others) have pretty much revealed that it WAS her voice...and yet not her actual conversation. Garci is in the exact same boat.


If you noticed, Abe, I layed out elsewhere in the "Game, Set, Match" thread a few of the initial steps down the path that one alternative theory offers. In light of that specific theory, wouldn't a bright opposition figure (who himself was a target of the wiretaps he uncovered) know that he could falsify the conversation because he also knew that GMA would not want to admit that there were any original wiretapping orders given by her? That the original tapes would never surface and that the public would just buy what the doctored version heard with their own ears? That the public would get so ticked off that there would never be any time/space for GMA to defend her position?


Anyway, my biggest point has always been: If the tapes are real and GMA and Garci connived together, we should be able to verify such massive cheating upon review of the ballots, ERs, CoC's, etc.

As far as I know Legarda's recount hasn't turned up much (though it's still too early to pass judgement...let's wait until the whole process is over).

And to turn the tables a bit, how come Legarda didn't get a lot more financial and verbal backing by the oppositionists in her quest for a recount? If GMA/Garci cheated, wouldn't that be the opposition's main line of attack? How come THEY weren't being aggressive in pursuing this path which would prove the very core of their contention?

By the way, where are all those fake ERs that they talked about (and waved around) a few months ago? If the charge was valid/accurate, I would think they would have proven their claim by now. But they've been pretty mum on those ER's, haven't they? Why?

Certainly one can say that there have been many kinds of allegations raised...but then quietly dropped later...since the whole brouhaha started. Has there been a pattern we should be taking greater note of?


Look, I repeat that GMA might have cheated. I just don't think that this (unproven, unsubstantiated) theory is the only one out there...yet it has been treated by gospel by many. And I'm obviously not comfortable with such easy acceptance in the absence of investigations into other possible scenarios.

And in any case, if we don't have proof how can anyone take action? (Yes, I realize that this question plays into the hands of the ERap defenders...but so be it. And no, I'm definitely NOT an Erap defender.)


Bottom line: Let's see what happens with the Legarda recount/protest.....

January 15, 2006 12:54 AM  
Blogger cvj said...

Abe,

Thanks for your rejoinder. The problem i see with Geo's approach is not his counter allegations (which deserve a fair hearing), but the manner in which he tries to bring it out. I'd rather he state his hypothesis/theory clearly rather than to let someone else do the work for him.

Also, i can't see how the resolution of the Legarda recount be considered a 'bottomline' as this is a separate issue.

January 15, 2006 6:53 AM  
Anonymous Geo said...

CJV,

You (reasonably) stated:

"I'd rather [Geo] state his hypothesis/theory clearly rather than to let someone else do the work for him."

To be honest, CJV, I'm scared to.

I also think I gave any interested party plenty to work with in constructing such an alternative theory. I'm sinmply the wrong guy to say it publicly.


Meanwhile, I don't understand why you separate Legarda's and GMA's cases. Both sides have repeatedly stated that they are noting the results of the presidential votes as they proceed with the exercise.

Either there was or there wasn't mass electoral fraud for both the Presidential and Vice-Presidential slots.

In Cebu, at least......

January 15, 2006 8:36 AM  
Blogger cvj said...

Geo,

I guess it's a matter of taste as a '20 questions' approach seems out of sync with the open style of a weblog exchange. Anyway, you have your reasons so fair enough, i'll have to respect that.

The reason i don't think the resolution of Loren's protest will close GMA's legitimacy issue is simply because the President and VP are voted for separately which means there are four possible outcomes. However, if there is in fact such a prior agreement between the opposing parties that the resolution of one issue would also resolve the other, then i would stand corrected.

January 15, 2006 7:33 PM  
Blogger Abe N. Margallo said...

Geo,

Speaking of theorizing, I venture into one sometime in Sept. 2004. Please check it out here: http://redsherring.blogspot.com/2005/09/its-fiction-stupid.html For your convenience, the main scenario runs thus:

__________

As La Gloria’s approval rating trended perilously downwards, Big Uncle became alarmed about the prospect of another People Power of a dimension potentially different from the first two upheavals. People Power III, U.S. analysts calculated, could create seismic shifts in the power relations in the region in a manner that could severely damage U.S. interest.

The analysts were of course well aware that People Power has been denied respite owing to a sequence or confluence of events: the insurrection of the Great Unwashed, the Oakwood mutiny, the cry for the ‘Angel of the Cross,’ the challenge of Ang Panday, the tyranny at the canvass, the E-VAT woes and worries, and the requiem for the Da King, among others.

The Great Beast, its muscle being thus constantly honed and limbered up (at some well-paced intervals although at various intensities), has been battle-fit since the last roar that swept La Gloria into power.

Now, it was just a matter of time, the experts reckoned, La Gloria would suffer the fate of her predecessor.

The inevitability of People Power III being seen as given, Big Uncle began to scout for a lackey as La Gloria’s successor. There was a sense, too, a quickened ouster of La Gloria would catch off guard those power grabbers waiting in the wings as well as honest-to-god people power practitioners and thereby ensure Big Uncle to impose, more or less, his choice. So, the Garci tapes, obtained by a coalition of anti-terror operatives as a matter of routine operations, had to be let out to trigger the revolt.

Big Uncle’s calculation was awfully off. On the one hand, La Gloria was tougher than it was thought, and on the other, People Power practitioners hemmed and hawed.

So, CIA enlisted a tobacco-munching-former-West Pointer of an FVR and an ex-future-president-on-a-last-trip-to-become-a-Prime Minister of a JDV to deliver the ultimatum to La Gloria to cut and cut cleanly via a Charter change. With the call for her resignation still mounting, La Gloria obliged to the “graceful exit” offer.

But the President’s men outclassed the Opposition on the run-up and during the impeachment (not necessarily People Power, however). The impeachment vote was a rout. And Big Uncle in fact saw an Iron Lady in La Gloria of the caliber of Da Apo - that is, a real(able) McCoy after all.

Now, now what to do with FVR and JDV? Leak out the Venable deal (a furtive contract between RP and a lobbying firm for the purpose of obtaining US funding to tweak the Philippine constitution) and decapitate the senescent do-Dou as well as their Cha cha brainchild.

__________


Honestly, I’m very impressed and happy to learn from your dialectics.

Cvj,


I agree that the Legarda election contest is a separate issue. In fact it was the line of argument I have pursued as in the following:

________

Under the THIRD argument, GMA claims that the principal charge, “election fraud,” is in the nature of an election contest and therefore the Supreme Court, sitting as Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET) should try and decide the matter to the exclusion of the impeachment power of Congress (Note: The election contest filed by FPJ has already been dismissed by the PET following the untimely death of FPJ.)

Nice try. The impeachment is not about GMA’s election. It is about her un-election (removal from office to pre-terminate her tenure upon specific grounds enumerated by the Constitution) because she cheated, as alleged, during the election. One is apple, the other is orange, to put it simply.

__________


Thanks, cvj.

January 15, 2006 10:33 PM  
Anonymous Geo said...

Abe,

First of all, please let me reciprocate: I admire your posts, the tones thereof, and the overall approach you take when delving into the topics du jour.

Just popping in here because I'm wondering if you are also starting to see developments which support something of a mixture of our two theories.

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